Question 13 of 18 in Industry
Started Nov 11, 2020 01:00PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021?


Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.

Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). 

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.

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Name Probability
Less than $2.2 billion 9%
More than $2.2 billion but less than or equal to $2.7 billion 29%
Between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion, inclusive 30%
Between $3.2 billion and $3.7 billion, inclusive 19%
More than $3.7 billion 12%

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