Question 16 of 16 in Industry
Started Oct 22, 2020 04:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC

Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?


Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here

Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. 

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. 


This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Name Probability
Yes 79%

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