Question 4 of 5 in Research
Started Oct 22, 2020 04:00PM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?


Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization.

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Name Probability
Less than 15% 8%
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive 15%
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19% 30%
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21% 33%
More than 21% 15%

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