Started Jul 15, 2020 04:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC

Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020?

Topics

Context. In a "major U-turn," on July 14, 2020, the U.K. announced a ban on the Chinese tech company Huawei. The announcement came one day after U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien arrived in Paris to discuss 5G networks, among other topics, with his counterparts from the U.K., Germany, France, and Italy. According to Reuters, the U.S. is applying greater pressure on other EU countries to also impose stricter limits on Huawei.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on official announcements by Italy, France, Spain, and Germany.

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Resolution Notes
This question required an official announcement to resolve affirmatively. There are reports that the Italian government has enacted new measures affecting Huawei through a "secretive three-page document." See https://formiche.net/2020/07/italy-5g-security-measures-impair-huawei-zte/ And France's cybersecurity agency ANSSI reportedly told French telecom operators that France won't renew licenses for Huawei 5G equipment, which Reuters is calling a "de facto ban." But "ANSSI’s decisions have not been made public, either by the agency or by the companies." See https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-huawei-5g-security-exclusive/exclusive-french-limits-on-huawei-5g-equipment-amount-to-de-facto-ban-by-2028-idUSKCN24N26R Accordingly neither of the above constitutes an affirmative resolution.

Final Crowd Forecast

20%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

111

Forecast
Count

161

Crowd Brier Score

0.1593


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.126
2.
-0.118
3.
-0.118
4.
-0.113
5.
-0.11

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