Started Jun 22, 2020 03:59PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 10, 2020 02:04PM UTC

Will the Executive Branch delay implementation of any part of Section 889, Part B, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by July 17, 2020?

Topics

ContextThe National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2018 stipulates that the Department of Defense may not procure “any equipment, system, or service” from a vendor incorporating components from the Chinese companies Huawei or ZTE anywhere in the vendor’s global supply chain. Vendors were allowed a one year grace period to adjust their supply chains from the time of the bill’s signing into law, a period which ends on August 13, 2020 (H.R. 2810). To go into effect, the Executive Branch must issue implementing rules. Using the same rulemaking process, however, the Executive Branch could delay the law's implementation. A draft final rule is due July 1The bill reflects a growing tension between economic and security considerations. On the one hand, the bill would further the U.S. government’s efforts to decouple the U.S. and Chinese economies and respond to data security risks such as Chinese access to surveillance data. On the other hand, the bill threatens the U.S. defense industrial base, a roughly $600 billion industry (Bloomberg). 


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Resolution Notes

Reporting indicates "Companies that provide the US government with goods and services must certify that they do not use Huawei equipment or products from other controversial Chinese groups, according to a new Trump administration rule. The Trump administration on Friday issued a rule requiring companies to prove that they have no commercial ties with several Chinese companies, including Huawei and Hikvision, a maker of surveillance cameras used in the camps where China is detaining 1m Uighur Muslims." [source: https://www.ft.com/content/132ffcb0-e30d-4130-986e-14d9e14396d7]
Here's the prepublication of the interim rule: https://www.acquisition.gov/early-posting-of-rule/2019-009

Final Crowd Forecast

36%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

36

Forecast
Count

56

Crowd Brier Score

0.5075


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.415
2.
-0.298
3.
-0.278
4.
-0.224
5.
-0.212

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