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Started Jun 18, 2020 01:31PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC

Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?

Topics

Context. Tensions between the U.S. and China heightened in mid-May when the Commerce Department announced that any company (U.S. or foreign) selling chips to Huawei will have to acquire a license if they use U.S. intellectual property or equipment in their production process. The Global Times, a daily tabloid newspaper under the Chinese Communist Party's People's Daily newspaper, reported on May 15 that the Chinese government is ready to take a series of countermeasures, including adding companies like Apple to an "unreliable entities list."

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. An official announcement about the inclusion of any of these companies in the list will suffice even if the effective date is after August 10, 2020.

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This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:

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Final Crowd Forecast

13%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

124

Forecast
Count

174

Crowd Brier Score

0.1067


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.071
2.
-0.051
3.
-0.043
4.
-0.039
5.
-0.036

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