Started Aug 17, 2021 11:40AM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC

How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?

This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this demo video or blog post.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on publication and grant data from Dimensions. A publication is an AI publication if it would be categorized under the artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multi-agent systems, or robotics categories on arXiv, as determined by a CSET-developed classifier. "Highly cited" publications are those in the top 10 percent by citation count. A publication is a "U.S. publication" if any of its authors are affiliated with an institution based in the United States.

The percentage being forecasted is the number of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant as a percentage of the total number of highly cited U.S. AI publications. 

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The historical data underlying the graph is here.

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Current Crowd Forecast

Time Period Forecast
2021 5.46
2022 5.39
2023 5.24

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