Started Jul 01, 2021 11:00AM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC

Will there be an organized employee protest at one of the "Big 5" tech companies against the company's involvement with DoD in the next four quarters (year)?

This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post

Context.  Several employee protests of their company's involvement with DoD have made headlines in the past few years. In April 2018, thousands of Google employees signed a letter protesting Google's involvement with DoD's Project Maven. In October 2018, 100 Microsoft employees wrote a letter to the Microsoft CEO requesting that Microsoft not bid on the JEDI contract, a large cloud-computing contract.

Data and resolution details. This "Big 5" tech companies are Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon, and Apple. To qualify as an organized protest, 100 or more employees must take a concerted action, such as signing a petition or letter, resigning, or refusing to work on a particular project. The concerted action must be explicitly tied to the company's involvement with DoD. The protest must be reported on in USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, or the San Francisco Chronicle. 

Question format. This question asks about the four-quarter period (year) beginning with the following quarter. For example, a forecast made on November 15 (Q3) is forecasting January (Q1) through December (Q4) of the following year. It rolls over at the beginning of every quarter: January 1, April 1, July 1, and October 1, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.

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