Started Jun 18, 2020 12:52PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC

What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Topics

Context. Facial recognition technology is becoming increasingly controversial due to fears about widespread surveillance. The sentiment of media coverage on the topic is a proxy for public attitudes. 

Background and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is about facial recognition if it mentions the term "facial recognition." Nexis uses a machine-learning trained sentiment-analysis model to evaluate the sentiment of an article on a scale of -1 to 1. For this question, an article has negative sentiment if its sentiment is less than 0. This question resolves when CSET receives Nexis data through September 30, 2020.

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:

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Resolution Notes
The answer is 43.9%, the lowest percentage since we started tracking the data in 2015.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 30% 5%
Between 30% and 40%, inclusive 11%
More than 40% but less than or equal to 50% 28%
More than 50% but less than or equal to 60% 33%
More than 60% 24%

No. of
Forecasters

130

Forecast
Count

169

Crowd Brier Score

0.2238


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.215
3.
-0.161
4.
-0.159
5.
-0.134

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