Started Jun 17, 2020 03:02PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Topics

Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2020. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Resolution Notes
The answer is $41 million.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $30 million 8%
Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive 27%
More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million 33%
More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million 19%
More than $150 million 13%

No. of
Forecasters

62

Forecast
Count

72

Crowd Brier Score

0.2622


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.271
2.
-0.211
4.
-0.181
5.
-0.167

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