Question 4 of 11 in Industry
Started Jun 22, 2020 01:22PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?


Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. 

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System,, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an "AI contract" if BGOV classified it in the "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning" market. It's a "research" contract if it has a "Research and Development" Product Service Code

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Name Probability
Less than $100 million 6%
Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive 15%
More than $150 million but less than or equal to $200 million 36%
More than $200 million but less than or equal to $250 million 26%
More than $250 million 17%

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