Started Aug 24, 2021 01:35PM UTC   •   Closing Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC

How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?

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Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index of Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello, which counts the occurrence of words related to geopolitical tensions in leading international newspapers. The historical and forecasted data are a 12-month rolling average index score. Forecasting for each six-month period ends halfway through the period. The data are updated for each month on the GPR website around the 10th of the following month. 

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The historical data underlying the graph is here.

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What are forecasters saying? Here is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.

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Current Crowd Forecast

Time Period Forecast
2021 H2 120.65
2022 H1 130.88
2022 H2 140.51
2023 H1 148.8
2023 H2 155.84
2024 H1 160.65

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