CSET Foretell's latest research and events
Future Indices report · Using Crowd Forecasts to Inform Policy (recording) ·
Upcoming event December 15th, 2:00pm ET: Forecasting U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry
 
Started Jun 04, 2020 05:19PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?

Topics

Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas (Lynn Kuok, 2018). These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area (Spatial Source, 2018). The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies (USNI News). China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area (Andrew Erickson).

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.

***

This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:

To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.

Final Crowd Forecast

6%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

163

Forecast
Count

255

Crowd Brier Score

0.0327


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.012
2.
-0.01
3.
-0.009
4.
-0.009
5.
-0.009

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username