Question 14 of 15 in Industry
Started May 30, 2020 11:13PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?


Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the three-months ending March 31, 2020 were $97.9 billion. Data for those three months are not included in the graph below. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:

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Name Probability
Less than $300 billion 6%
Between $300 billion and $450 billion, inclusive 28%
More than $450 billion but less than or equal to $600 billion 52%
More than $600 billion but less than or equal to $750 billion 11%
More than $750 billion 3%

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