Question 4 of 29
Started Jul 08, 2021 03:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2022 12:00PM UTC

Partnered with Good Judgment Inc.

When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

Context. In Spring 2021, India became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic (CNBC; BBC). As of July 8, 2021, 296 million people in India have received one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. 

Data and resolution details. The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government. Click "Vaccination State Data," which opens a daily PDF report, "Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination." Navigate to the "India" row in the column titled "1st Dose." Data is reported in Indian notation; one hundred crore (1,00,00,00,000) is equivalent to one billion (1,000,000,000) in international notation.

For time series data, see Our World in Data. The underlying data from Our World in Data is here.


To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.

Name Probability
Before January 1, 2022 7%
Between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2022 11%
Between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022 18%
Between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022 24%
Not before October 1, 2022 40%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username