Question 3 of 34
Started Jun 07, 2021 11:45AM UTC   •   Closing Nov 07, 2022 11:59PM UTC

Will the Democratic Party maintain its majority in the U.S. House of Representatives after the midterm elections in 2022?

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Context. All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will be contested at the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, to be held on November 8, 2022. The Democratic Party has had a majority in the House since the 2018 midterm elections, when they held 235 seats. The Democratic Party's majority was reduced to 222 seats after the 2020 elections. Since 2020, three seats held by Democrats have been vacated: Ohio 11; New Mexico 1; and Florida 20. A Democrat won the New Mexico 1 special election; the Ohio 11 and Florida 20 special elections will be held on November 2, 2021, and January 11, 2022, respectively. 

The New York Time's FiveThirtyEight blog provides ongoing analysis of relevant historical and polling data. For example, since 1946, the president's party has lost an average 27 House seats.

Resolution details. A candidate will be considered a Democrat if they are formally affiliated with the Democratic Party in the election, or if they have publicly stated that they intend to caucus with the Democratic Party. Determination of the election outcome will based on popular media reporting if the result is reasonably unambiguous. If the outcome is initially reasonably ambiguous, determination of the election outcome will be based on state election authority certification, or other official state determination. If the outcome is unclear for any other reasons, including contestation of the results, Foretell staff will determine at their discretion when, and on what basis, to resolve this question.

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This question was proposed by Vanessa Pineda (username: vpsays).

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Name Probability
Yes 47%

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