Question 1 of 4 in Research
Started May 17, 2021 01:30PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 31, 2021 11:59PM UTC

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?


Related question. A version of this question was previously issued for 2021. You can view those forecasts here. The median crowd forecast for 2021 is 18.4%.

Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization.

The data for 2021 in the graph below is incomplete and will be updated over the course of the year.

The graph is linked directly to data from the vendor. Values on the graph can change if the vendor updates the data in ways that impact past data points. The data underlying the graph on the date the question was published is here. If the data changes to a non-trivial extent, we will notify forecasters and add a new snapshot of the data to the spreadsheet to make it easier to view the changes. 

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Name Probability
Less than 14% 7%
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive 15%
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% 29%
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% 35%
More than 20% 13%

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