Question 6 of 16 in Industry
Started Apr 20, 2021 12:20PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC

What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022?


Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment. A version of this question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. You can view those forecasts here. That question has not yet resolved. The mean crowd forecast for that question -- made before 2020 H2 data was available -- is $5 billion.

Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenario:

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Name Probability
Less than $8.5 billion 4%
More than $8.5 billion but less than or equal to $10 billion 11%
Between $10 billion and $11.5 billion, inclusive 27%
Between $11.5 billion and $13 billion, inclusive 33%
More than $13 billion 25%

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