Question 1 of 5 in China Politics
Started Apr 20, 2021 12:20PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC

Partnered with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?

Topics

Related question. A related question on Good Judgment Open asks about the chance of a U.S. boycott.

Context. The 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled to occur in Beijing between February 4 and 20, 2022.

In recent months, countries, companies, and athletes have faced rising pressure to boycott the Beijing Olympics because of China's treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang (CNBCEconomist, Guardian). More than 180 organizations have called to boycott the Beijing Olympics (BBC, Economist). Tensions rose further following sanctions by the UK, U.S., Canada, and the EU against China for "serious human rights abuses" (CNN). The Biden administration has floated the idea of a boycott (Financial Times) and has reportedly discussed a joint boycott with U.S. allies (AP News).

Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history (Montreal GazetteHistory.com). The U.S boycotted the Moscow Olympics to protest the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan, and sixty-five nations refused to participate in the games (U.S State Gov). Most of the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa boycotted the Summer Olympics in Montreal to protest the attendance of New Zealand after the latter sent its rugby team to play against the team from apartheid South Africa (U.S State Gov).

Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or an official announcement that a G7 country is boycotting the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the U.S.

***

To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.

Name Probability
Yes 20%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username