Question 10 of 14 in U.S.-China
Started Mar 30, 2021 09:45PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 31, 2021 04:59AM UTC

Partnered with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?


Context. Chinese military basing in the Pacific has been an acute concern for US, Australian and New Zealand military planners for some time. China has made political and economic inroads into the Pacific islands for years and recent ‘covid diplomacy’ has generated new political capital (Eurasian Times). China came close in 2018 as it discussed co-developing four major ports and eventually a military base in Papua New Guinea, including at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island. There was also speculation of a proposed military base on Vanuatu (Reuters), which China denied (Guardian).

The signing of an official agreement between one or more Pacific nations would be seen as a significant development in this area.

Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined on any official announcement or reputable media reporting that an agreement has been reached to establish a Chinese military base in the Pacific Ocean.


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Name Probability
Yes 14%

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