Question 1 of 2 in Immigration
Started Mar 12, 2021 02:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?

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Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.

Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. 

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on "initial approvals" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2022.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The "Big 5" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. 

The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.

Name Probability
Less than 7,500 6%
Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive 14%
More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500 31%
More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500 28%
More than 13,500 20%

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