Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. 

Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021. 

The graph is linked directly to data from the vendor. Values on the graph can change if the vendor updates the data in ways that impact past data points. The data underlying the graph on the date the question was published is here. If the data changes to a non-trivial extent, we will notify forecasters and add a new snapshot of the data to the spreadsheet to make it easier to view the changes. 

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

• Tech Companies Threaten Democracy
• Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today

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