Question 2 of 5 in Research
Started Jan 14, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?


Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. 

Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Name Probability
Less than $30 million 6%
Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive 33%
More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million 31%
More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million 19%
More than $150 million 11%

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