Question 13 of 16 in Industry
Started Jan 14, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

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Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here

Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. 

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an "AI contract" if BGOV classified it in the "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning" market. It's a "research" contract if it has a "Research and Development" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years.

Due to an up-to-90-day delay in FPDS reporting, this question will resolve based on data available on April 1, 2022.

The graph is linked directly to data from the vendor. Values on the graph can change if the vendor updates the data in ways that impact past data points. The data underlying the graph on the date the question was published is here. If the data changes to a non-trivial extent, we will notify forecasters and add a new snapshot of the data to the spreadsheet to make it easier to view the changes. 

This question is a metric for the following world forecast:

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Name Probability
Less than $200 million 4%
Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive 16%
More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million 37%
More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million 28%
More than $650 million 15%

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