Question 14 of 16 in Industry
Started Jan 06, 2021 02:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC

How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?


Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, "Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol."

The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a "bargaining unit" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, "workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract." 

Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. 


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Name Probability
Less than 800 10%
Between 800 and 4,000 54%
More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000 24%
More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000 9%
More than 100,000 3%

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