Review Question

What is the percentage of car owners in the U.S. who will own an electric car by the end of 2021?

Answer Initial Probability
Less than or equal to 20% 20%
21 - 40% 20%
41 - 60% 20%
61 - 80% 20%
81 - 100% 20%

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May 31, 2021 05:41AM UTC
Jan 01, 2022 07:59AM UTC

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made a comment:

The sport utility and small truck market is huge in the US. Until that market is open (2022 with the Ford Lightning and less so the cyber truck) I cant see this exceeding 20%. Though once Gm enters the fray, and Ford is on the market I see a huge jump. but that is not within this window. Also, Delta variant is keeping people at home. Why would I need a new car (they are all mostly new cars) if I am commuting from the kitchen to the office down the hall.

made a comment:

La tendencia será menor o igual al 20% ya que coincido con varios de los participantes en que no hay incentivos para consumo de autos eléctricos derivado del costo. Además, en un contexto de reactivación económica es aún más complicado frente a la necesidad de cubrir necesidades principales.

made a comment:

According to a July 30 Wash Post article, about 2.2% of US autos are EVs. With strong advertising and govt policy support for tax credits and charging stations, I think this could increase to 3-4% by Dec 2021.

made a comment:

I give the answer 21-40% a 30% probability. I do not see much incentives as a consumer for a change as petrolio is still cheap and electric cars quite expensive. Maybe a strong marketing campaign conveying a status image and economic incentives could push towards an electric car revolution. But maybe.

made a comment:

I like this question, but I think abstract motivation to buy an electric car is less powerful than the reality of a more expensive purchase. I think the 2021 economy doesn't allow for a huge jump but I am optimistic

made a comment:

Actually, total cost of ownership-wise, it's less expensive. Simpler engines with like 12 moving parts is easier to maintain than an ICE engine with 2,000. It's why fleets are moving to all electric, and Americans will too.

Edit: Although not by end of 2021.

made a comment:

It is promising, but I do not think there will be a dramatic change by the end of this year in reality.

made a comment:

This is a great question. I suppose we won't see a dramatic change by the end of 2021, but since electric car is a sector whit exponential growth, it worth to keep an eye on it.

made a comment:

I didn´t know I was able to send questions to review without background information. In this case, it would be good to ask to the question´s owner what data he/she considered to design this question.

Personally, I do not believe the car owners in the US will be more than 20%. There are many reasons, but one of them is explained in this article about the satisfaction of the EV Owners by April 2021.

At the same time, I have been following some articles related to EV Production in Europe and China....and actually, there are many challenges related not just quality but to affordable price as well.

made a comment:

I like this question. And I will propose a twist related to the use of full self-driving capabilities cars.

made a comment:

2.5%. Sales are steady for Teslas and other EVs, but the percentage of Americans that own EVs is still only 2%. Democratic control of Congress means that it is very likely federal subsidies will increase and gas taxes will remain high. Therefore, car companies will be incentivized to create new EVs and states will increase finding for charging stations. However, this is a long-term process and by the end of 2021 the percentage is unlikely to rise above 3%.

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