Review Question

What will be the fourth quarter to fourth quarter percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for the fourth quarter of 2021?

Answer Initial Probability
Less than 1.5% 14%
More than 1.5% but less than or equal to 2% 14%
More than 2% but less than or equal to 2.5% 14%
More than 2.5% but less than or equal to 3% 14%
More than 3% but less than or equal to 3.5% 14%
More than 3.5% but less than or equal to 4% 14%
More than 4% 14%

As the economy recovers from a recession caused by coronavirus economists at the Federal Reserve have announced that they expect inflation to rise higher in the coming months but that they expect it to be transitory. However, some have expressed concerns that the Federal Reserve is underestimating inflation or that the Federal Reserve could lose control of inflation if they don't act soon.

In March of 2021, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projected fourth quarter 2021 PCE inflation of 2.4% over the fourth quarter of 2020. Their fourth quarter inflation projections are also available in chart form here.

This question resolves based on PCE inflation data released by Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the fourth quarter of 2021. The "advance" estimate will be used, which will typically be released sometime in the first quarter of 2022. The release for the first quarter of 2021is available here. A chart of the percent change in the PCE from the same quarter in the previous year is available here.

May 12, 2021 05:43PM UTC
Jan 01, 2022 05:59AM UTC

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made a comment:

This is a great metric, but not a current events-based question. In other words, I don't think it's great as a standalone question. I'd be happy to publish it if/when there's a tie-in to a policy issue or a cluster of questions.

Also, for current events-based questions, I think being unusually accessible is important. Given that, I'm mostly looking for binary "will x happen by y"-style questions. (Even though I personally love time series-based questions for more-sophisticated forecasters.)

made a comment:

That's fair, no worries. Inflation seems like it's been creeping into the public consciousness as a concern so that was my angle on current events, but I agree it's probably not a very accessible question.

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