About the Pro Forecaster Program
The Pro Forecaster Program is a paid team of the 50 most accurate or active forecasters on Foretell, plus a handful of outside forecasters with proven track records, who make forecasts to contribute to our research and analysis for policymakers. If you can demonstrate a track record as a top forecaster on a similar forecasting site, such as Good Judgment Open or Metaculus, we encourage you to apply.
We are accepting applications on a rolling basis for 2021.Apply Now
What You’ll Do
The primary role of a Pro Forecaster will be to make and update forecasts, committing 10 hours per month to the activity at your convenience. As part of this commitment, we will ask you to:
Complete the Good Judgment training curriculum;
Forecast weekly (preferred) or bi-weekly (at a minimum) to ensure that you are generating timely forecasts: this includes submitting new forecasts and updating prior forecasts to indicate how your perspective has changed;
Write thoughtful rationales consistent with what you learn in training;
Forecast on questions for which we need data: we might ask you to focus on specific questions in a given month. Be vigilant about forecasting on questions that have less activity or are closing soon;
Stay up to date on the questions that are active on Foretell and proactively find relevant information to inform your forecasts; and
Attend occasional virtual meetings and events with other Foretell Pro Forecasters and Ambassadors.
Maintaining Pro Forecaster Status
We will be evaluating eligibility of Pro Forecasters on an ongoing basis as there will be a waitlist for the program. To maintain your status, you must be meeting the monthly commitment and be ranked in the 50th percentile for accuracy (compared to others scored on the same number of questions). We will make every effort to notify you in advance of any changes to your Pro Forecaster eligibility and provide an opportunity for improving accuracy.
Benefits & Rewards
Earned compensation - You will earn USD 200 per month for every month you complete as a Pro. You may select to receive compensation via direct deposit (U.S.), the Veem cash app (International), or Amazon email gift cards (where applicable). Payment will be made after each month completed by the 15th of the following month.
Professional forecasting training & certification - We will sponsor your spot in Probabilistic Forecasting Training by Good Judgment, the same training currently being used by intelligence agencies, investment banks, and others throughout the world. Your training will be a series of virtual courses focused on cutting-edge techniques used by Superforecasters that will only be offered to our Pro Forecasters and Ambassadors.
Reputation as a top forecaster - Your experience as a Foretell Pro Forecaster can be added to your professional resume, Linked In profile, and similar social platforms to boost your credentials.
Lend your expertise to an innovative technology policy project - You will directly contribute to an innovative forecasting project that is monitoring technology and security issues central to policymaking.
If you have additional questions about being a Pro Forecaster, please email email@example.com.
Foretell is an offering sponsored by Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) that seeks to use collective intelligence to assess the likelihood of influential events on policy issues and highlight disagreements among experts. Foretell is partnering with Cultivate Labs, a crowdsourcing startup, to run the project. Cultivate Labs supports crowd forecasting efforts for governments and large organizations around the world.
How to Apply
Send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org that includes:
A brief explanation of your forecasting experience and why you should be a Pro Forecaster
Your resume or link to your public LinkedIn profile
Documented proof of your accuracy and participation from a forecasting site similar to Foretell, such as Good Judgment Open, Metaculus, or Hypermind. Proof may include, for example, a screenshot or report showing your accuracy score/ranking, screename, and sample forecasts and commentary.
You must include all of the above in order to be considered.Apply now