emmakate

About:

Show more
View All Badges »
2024 Season Stats

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 261
Comments 0 0 0 0 2
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 141
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 9
 Definitions
New Prediction

confirming

Files
New Prediction
On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?
emmakate made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
Less than 5
62%
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
35%
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 18

an initial forecast based on Ben's amazing analysis below 

Files
New Prediction
Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?
emmakate made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Jan 25, 2023 10:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Dec 25, 2022 to Jan 25, 2023

confirming 

Files
New Prediction

confirming 

Files
New Prediction
New Prediction

adjusted based on news

Files
New Prediction

adjusted based on news

Files
New Prediction
What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?
emmakate made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than $5 billion
9% (+4%)
More than $5 billion but less than or equal to $6 billion
87% (+27%)
Between $6 billion and $7 billion, inclusive
4% (-31%)
Between $7 billion and $8 billion, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than $8 billion

confirming but adjusting the weight a bit 

Files
New Prediction
What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?
emmakate made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than $320 billion
3% (-17%)
More than $320 billion but less than or equal to $350 billion
20% (-40%)
Between $350 billion and $380 billion, inclusive
75% (+55%)
Between $380 billion and $410 billion, inclusive
2% (+2%)
More than $410 billion

following the no.1 person's forecast 

Files
New Prediction
What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?
emmakate made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than $25 billion
9% (-1%)
More than $25 billion but less than or equal to $35 billion
87% (+7%)
Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive
4% (-6%)
Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than $55 billion

narrowing it down as the questions is closing soon

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel