INFER Public

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 01, 2021 04:51PM UTC	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.065245
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM UTC	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	0.167593
Feb 05, 2021 05:35PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?	0.06234
Feb 01, 2021 02:49PM UTC	How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.098095
Jan 04, 2021 01:58PM UTC	What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020?	0.108966
Jan 04, 2021 01:49PM UTC	What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.007442
Nov 03, 2020 02:25PM UTC	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	0.29361
Oct 31, 2020 03:04PM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?	0.209055
Oct 21, 2020 02:47PM UTC	What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.283151
Oct 20, 2020 01:16PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.007444
Oct 01, 2020 06:17PM UTC	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.019858
Oct 01, 2020 02:37PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.378083
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	-0.000541
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	0.048204
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM UTC	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	0.820905
Sep 01, 2020 01:31PM UTC	Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?	0.036334
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?	-0.002876
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?	-0.016662
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?	-0.028964
Jun 29, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020?	-0.0075

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