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@johnnycaffeine on base rates: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/97840
OTOH @belikewater notes situation seems to have deteriorated more recently, including US embassy in Haiti urging US citizens to leave Haiti asap: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/97210
Ultimately coming up a little bit.
July 7 marked two years since Moïse's assassination [1].
Old (February) news: "[Henry] has pledged to leave office by Feb. 7, 2024, after postponing elections indefinitely in the wake of a devastating earthquake that affected the Southern Peninsula, along with gang violence." https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/haitian-pm-installs-transition-council-prepare-long-awaited-elections-2023-02-07/
I doubt that there will actually be elections before Feb. 7, 2024. But "vigilante justice" seems to be working to stabilize Port-au-Prince and quell gang violence [2]. This makes me think an irregular transition is less likely than I thought previous.
[1] https://www.voanews.com/a/haiti-marks-2nd-anniversary-of-moise-s-assassination-/7172302.html
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/03/world/americas/haiti-crime-gangs-vigilantes.html
After only an hour of reading, here are some numbers I've come up with. These are very tenuous -- I bet they'll move a lot as I learn more:
Ways that Ariel Henry could cease to be president (or acting president) through an irregular transition ("yes" resolution):
(A3) and (A4) aren't mutually exclusive.
Ways that Henry could stay president OR leave office in a normal way ("no" resolution):
That leaves ~30% for outcomes I haven't thought of!
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The Fragile [read: Failed] State Index from Fund for Peace ranks Haiti 11th, with Myanmar on one side (10th) and Guinea on the other. Its score has gotten higher (worse) for three years in a row. [2]
[1] https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/haitis-troubled-path-development
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index
"The economic sanctions have been extended successively for six months at a time since July 2016." [1] c/o @sebawi
They renewed on July 26 and January 13 [2] this year. I suppose that they'll do the same ~January 13 this year. It seems there's some question of whether Hungary will stop the renewal (see @A19 rationale).
I suppose sanctions could be left to expire because of something silly and bureaucratic -- they might let it expire and then renew it, like, in February, and that would still result in a "yes" resolution.
[1] Economic sanctions: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/#economic
Passage of time!