65th
Accuracy Rank

sebawi

Sebastian Witteler
About:

Interested in science, technology and innovation, the (global) common good, and futures thinking.

You may also find me @https://www.gjopen.com/ and @https://www.rangeforecasting.org/.

Show more
View All Badges ยป
Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Mar 16, 2022 04:00PM UTC In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial? -0.228024
Mar 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2022 -0.059514
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021? -0.019391
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? -0.016531
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? 0.21398
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022) -0.015197
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM UTC Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021) -0.057283
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? -0.203653
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? -0.086882
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM UTC How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.062002
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM UTC How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021 -0.026039
Jan 31, 2022 02:49PM UTC How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.037303
Jan 31, 2022 02:48PM UTC How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.048509
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM UTC How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive? 0.18767
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.024087
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.007474
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.003232
Jan 04, 2022 01:22PM UTC How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.277631
Jan 04, 2022 01:16PM UTC How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? -0.081964
Jan 03, 2022 01:44PM UTC What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? -0.163653
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel