INFER Public

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM UTC	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?	-0.010265
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)	0.04024
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)	0.08613
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)	0.02856
Oct 01, 2021 06:31PM UTC	[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?	0.036732
Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?	0.201633
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021)	0.02268
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021)	0.010848
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021)	0.00749
Jul 30, 2021 11:11AM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?	-0.130244
Jul 01, 2021 05:30PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	0.034656
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.137481
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	0.130858
Feb 18, 2021 03:07PM UTC	What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?	0.019285
Feb 01, 2021 02:48PM UTC	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.272767
Feb 01, 2021 02:47PM UTC	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.054347
Nov 13, 2020 04:08PM UTC	When will China officially recognize a winner of the U.S. presidential election?	-0.2448
Nov 03, 2020 05:49PM UTC	Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?	1.038457
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?	-0.085111
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	0.004259

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