INFER Public

What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?

Question Ends:
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 11, 2020 05:08AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 0.5%		Answer was incorrect
Between 0.5% and 1.0%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 1.0% but less than or equal to 1.5%		Answer was correct
More than 1.5%		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 23, 2020 07:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 18, 2020 05:10AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 3%		Answer was incorrect
Between 3% and 5%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 5% but less than or equal to 7%		Answer was incorrect
More than 7% but less than or equal to 9%		Answer was correct
More than 9%		Answer was incorrect

What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 18, 2020 06:12AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 0.3		Answer was incorrect
Between 0.3 and 0.6, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.6 but less than or equal to 0.9		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.9 but less than or equal to 1.2		Answer was correct
More than 1.2		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2020 04:20AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30%		Answer was incorrect
Between 30% and 40%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 40% but less than or equal to 50%		Answer was correct
More than 50% but less than or equal to 60%		Answer was incorrect
More than 60%		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 05, 2020 03:57AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 59%		Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%		Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%		Answer was correct
More than 80%		Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 05, 2020 04:21AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $400 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $400 billion and $480 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $480 billion but less than or equal to $560 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $560 billion but less than or equal to $640 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $640 billion		Answer was correct

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 05, 2020 05:09AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 2%		Answer was correct
Between 2% and 3.5%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 3.5% but less than or equal to 5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 5% but less than or equal to 6.5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6.5%		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 05, 2020 05:15AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2020 10:11PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 59%		Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%		Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%		Answer was incorrect
More than 80%		Answer was correct

What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2021 05:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2020 11:24PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $20 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $20 billion but less than or equal to $30 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $30 billion and $40 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between $40 billion and $50 billion, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $50 billion		Answer was incorrect

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Bryce Farabaugh

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