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John
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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Feb 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.004507
Jan 31, 2022 03:38PM UTC How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.092527
Jan 31, 2022 03:35PM UTC How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.058324
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM UTC How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.096294
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM UTC How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021 0.036664
Jan 31, 2022 02:49PM UTC How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.076867
Jan 31, 2022 02:48PM UTC How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.006846
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM UTC How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive? -0.036496
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.007045
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.002245
Jan 04, 2022 01:19PM UTC How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? -0.019168
Jan 03, 2022 01:44PM UTC What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? 0.064323
Jan 03, 2022 01:41PM UTC What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? 0.173556
Jan 01, 2022 02:17PM UTC Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? -0.091907
Jan 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? 0.03216
Jan 01, 2022 01:49PM UTC Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? 0.000261
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.023794
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? 0.204003
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021? 0.004381
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021? -0.024678
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