Here: https://imgur.com/a/FfcUT0v is the historical plot for a longer period of time. It kind of irritates me that the CF question only includes up to 2011.
Anyways, some off-the-cuff thoughts:
- Does my 90% confidence interval include another event as significant as 9/11 (>250 in this particular index). Well, maybe. A war with China would definitely qualify, but it seems fairly unlikely in that time period. Another major terrorist attack could also do it.
- Another way to look at this is: 2024 is just the end of Biden's presidency; how hawkish do I expect him to be? What about the other major geopolitical players.
- How histrionic is the media these days? On the one hand, I imagine that war sells, on the other hand, I think they feel somewhat more warmly towards Biden than towards Trump. And this index only captures reality through the lenses of the media. In particular, I imagine that a more objective dataset could be created by looking at Associated Press, Reuters, Aljazeera, BBC and Deutsche Welle, which have less of a spin.
Here: https://imgur.com/a/FfcUT0v is the historical plot for a longer period of time. It kind of irritates me that the CF question only includes up to 2011.
Anyways, some off-the-cuff thoughts:
- Does my 90% confidence interval include another event as significant as 9/11 (>250 in this particular index). Well, maybe. A war with China would definitely qualify, but it seems fairly unlikely in that time period. Another major terrorist attack could also do it.
- Another way to look at this is: 2024 is just the end of Biden's presidency; how hawkish do I expect him to be? What about the other major geopolitical players.
- How histrionic is the media these days? On the one hand, I imagine that war sells, on the other hand, I think they feel somewhat more warmly towards Biden than towards Trump. And this index only captures reality through the lenses of the media. In particular, I imagine that a more objective dataset could be created by looking at Associated Press, Reuters, Aljazeera, BBC and Deutsche Welle, which have less of a spin.
I'll revise this forecast in the coming weeks.