Since this is based on newspaper articles I think there are some factors I need to keep in mind that aren't related very much to geopolitical risk. A big one is whether something may have changed about newspaper reporting. In the 90s the index hovered below 50. In the 2010s it's been nearer to 100. My perception of the geopolitical risk from the 90s compared to the 2010s is that geopolitical risk isn't significantly larger. Perhaps the 90s benefited from a calm after coming out of the cold war but overall I'm not sure sure and I wonder if the internet age has shifted the newspaper model so that articles want to characterize things as more dire to attract clicks. That's all speculation though, but I do think it's a factor and I'll put some weight on that by not expecting the GPR to drop back down into the 50s.
Related to that last point, it looks to me like the index rose under Trump's presidency. I think there is some merit to it rising, as in my opinion he was a wild card that increased geopolitical tensions (assassination of Soleimani is a big example that comes to mind). But again some of that increase is likely to be coming from the perceptions of the people writing the newspaper articles, who are generally more liberal and may be biased to view the situation under Trump as more dire than it was. So there may be potential for the GPR to be lower under a Biden presidency for that reason.
There was also a drop in GPR in 2020, while Trump was still president. I agree with @JJMLP, to me that's likely to be because the focus shifted to COVID.
Overall I think the Biden presidency has a slightly lower potential for the GPR due the factors I mentioned, and that as long as COVID sticks around it may suppress the GPR. But if COVID fades GPR could increase as newspapers shift their attention to other matters. And I think tensions with China will continue to be a big factor in the GPR, especially once COVID (hopefully) fades in the coming years. So overall I'm forecasting a slow rise in GPR, but not quite as high as it was in 2019 before it began to decrease. The potential for conflict with China is also causing me to put my 90% range a little higher, though the index hasn't really seen a sustained increase over 200 for long which makes me think the rolling average won't be pushed up too high even if China does make an aggressive move toward Taiwan.
Since this is based on newspaper articles I think there are some factors I need to keep in mind that aren't related very much to geopolitical risk. A big one is whether something may have changed about newspaper reporting. In the 90s the index hovered below 50. In the 2010s it's been nearer to 100. My perception of the geopolitical risk from the 90s compared to the 2010s is that geopolitical risk isn't significantly larger. Perhaps the 90s benefited from a calm after coming out of the cold war but overall I'm not sure sure and I wonder if the internet age has shifted the newspaper model so that articles want to characterize things as more dire to attract clicks. That's all speculation though, but I do think it's a factor and I'll put some weight on that by not expecting the GPR to drop back down into the 50s.
Related to that last point, it looks to me like the index rose under Trump's presidency. I think there is some merit to it rising, as in my opinion he was a wild card that increased geopolitical tensions (assassination of Soleimani is a big example that comes to mind). But again some of that increase is likely to be coming from the perceptions of the people writing the newspaper articles, who are generally more liberal and may be biased to view the situation under Trump as more dire than it was. So there may be potential for the GPR to be lower under a Biden presidency for that reason.
There was also a drop in GPR in 2020, while Trump was still president. I agree with @JJMLP, to me that's likely to be because the focus shifted to COVID.
Overall I think the Biden presidency has a slightly lower potential for the GPR due the factors I mentioned, and that as long as COVID sticks around it may suppress the GPR. But if COVID fades GPR could increase as newspapers shift their attention to other matters. And I think tensions with China will continue to be a big factor in the GPR, especially once COVID (hopefully) fades in the coming years. So overall I'm forecasting a slow rise in GPR, but not quite as high as it was in 2019 before it began to decrease. The potential for conflict with China is also causing me to put my 90% range a little higher, though the index hasn't really seen a sustained increase over 200 for long which makes me think the rolling average won't be pushed up too high even if China does make an aggressive move toward Taiwan.