20210909 initial summary (i'm trying to summarize what everyone here is saying, trying to be mostly not wrong as opposed to completely right, but open to feedback... will update this comment --at the bottom of this comment-- twice a month or so accordingly)
some questions feature metrics that are not straightforward to intuit (e.g. the Bipartisan index from https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022); but as a percentage metric, this one couldn't be much simpler: minimum 0, maximum 100 and a straight linear function between them that corresponds directly to the proportion of interest in the subpopulation sampled. Most people have an intuition for this, I think, and if you don't, feel free to message me.
the main caveat with the metric space is that the question is scored not at purely periodic intervals but whenever the survey results are published (which can vary based on Pew's practices), so the time axis may be misleadingly regular...
of note (@MullenAustin, @AABoyles), the base rate in the graph is 1 data point long... from which deducing a trend is difficult, so we're forced to seek only related base rates, e.g. @DKC cites a Startpage survey from Feb 2021 indicating ~75% are concerned about online privacy but don't take much action to mitigate risks to it, and @cafebedouin cites a Gallup poll that ~half of respondents from 2000 were concerned about digital privacy whereas Pew data from the years after the Snowden revelation in 2013 indicates various sizable majorities concerned with various metrics of data collection by federal government surveillance, i.e. some increase in similar metrics.
so far, I think I'm reading a common theme of "already salient, so something big would have to be happen for the needle to move here", i.e. neutral-ish
also noticed (aside from the general sentiment that privacy and govt surveillance will become a bigger deal as time goes on) a pro-increase argument that essentially AI and cybersecurity will make this a bigger deal in the nearer future, making it especially prone to fear-mongering by big tech and thus firmly back in the minds of all those in the market for big tech products, but especially so if the government (e.g. DoD) becomes cozier with silicon valley as many here expect.
i.e. expect increases (although not by much)
@logarithmic (and @Estimatewell) makes a succinct counter-narrative that expects decreases: there's more room to go lower, and govt's surveilling behavior becomes more normal as time passes
20210919 update:
recent talk of privacy in the news, e.g. @DKC's articles, and in legislation, e.g. [...was waiting on citations, but didn't see any until subsequent update]
@TR301 makes a case for reduction using a tangential base rate data point: concern in 2014 over "the government’s monitoring of phone calls and internet communications" was 80% versus this survey's 64% with respect to government "collection of data"
@jowa makes case for a maximum percentage by virtue of some percent of people caring very little regardless of the news (about how much of their data is being collected).
20211002 update:
@velus posits a narrative arc to match their prediction arc, namely that the government will push laws to regulate more and more corporate use of data and thus will eventually be pressured to follow its own privacy rules, i.e. increasing concern of the public in the short term decreases over the following years
@cab391 provides a counterpoint that since the focus will be on corporations, there will be less concern about government use, although the prediction (decreasing over the longer term) remains the same
@ag2053 's takeaway is that once COVID has passed, there will be a renewed scrutiny on government use of data, especially given a lack of public engagement over privacy legislation, citing a brookings publication discussing the framework for privacy legislation.
20211021 update:
@DKC may add a wrinkle of party politics to consider: despite everyone's recent focus on facebook, mitch mcconnell and the right have a new problem with biden's build back better plan inviting the irs to screen for all transactions over 600$ (as opposed to the current 10k)... although even democrat senators and local leaders are not all on board...
20211210 update:
@shaun-ee points out demographics might clue us into where this is headed (and gives uncited datapoints that the better educated and minorities seem to trust less, i.e. if trust in authority deteriorates this metric will go up, and that age could go either way, more concerned but also ok with more use-cases)
@nelsonliu shares a nytimes article about corporate pushback against invasive govt spy tools (and sees concerns continuing to emerge) and another on govt's themselves becoming concerned enough that the UK fined an AI company recently over breaching data protection laws
@danielvizcarra in contrast notes the brazilian govt proliferating fake news and thus posits americans becoming more concerned if it can happen on such a large scale elsewhere
@ag2053 also reframes the question somewhat as to what extent governments will be willing to forego the allure of this new age of AI-ML data on its citizens versus enforcing reasonable privacy policies for a new age of AI-ML data, citing a brookings study that details relevant legal frameworks; they also cite a "thedrum.com" article that holds ~90% of both democrats and republicans take privacy legislation to be very or somewhat important
@bturkay1 adds the narrative that because sino-american relations are just as bad under biden as trump, then to the extent america feels it must match china's internet security, the threat of a more authoritarian leadership could boost this metric
@hannahlaibinis adds to the "this will become a bigger deal around elections" narrative that literally the act of giving out any of one's personal information in order to register to and then vote might remind us all that the government will be using our sensitive info very deliberately.
@raan_mend cites a compelling statistic from a bitdefender advertorial (the source for which is later cited by @ag2053 ): 74% of internet users feel they have no control over the personal information collected on them and more are concerned than three years ago (esp those aged >55)
20220121 in the news:
@DKC posts story of southern california law enforcement using mass license plate surveillance inappropriately/illegally, and another about a senate bill proposed to screen outbound investments, e.g. impacting trade flows with china, under the rubric of anticipating and mitigating supply chain vulnerabilities, for which getting renewed attention might raise the political temperature around how our government should get/use data
20220210 news:
@DKC posts a few more articles: one on the Biden admin's reticence to finally spin up the cybersecurity expert board to figure out ransomware attacks and digital espionage, and a couple on the IRS using facial recognition software and republican backlash
other than those, the more recent narratives involve younger and older generations becoming even more familiar with online life (and thus privacy concerns OR privacy nonchalance) and govt intrusion becoming a political hot-button
20220309
@sepeskoe starts a narrative of "too many other things to worry about"
@trishbytes cites https://www.securitymagazine.com/articles/94560-of-americans-very-concerned-about-online-privacy-but-most-dont-take-any-significant-action supporting a rationale for privacy inaction, at least in the short-term
@NickS cites multiple narratives both up/down(the latter depending on youth) and cites meta's recent GDPR issues, a pew research govt trust poll over the last ~60 yrs almost all trending lower (broken down by various demographics), and a brookings institute policy "study" that took way longer to read than i wanted to spend (tldr: "a simple golden rule for privacy: that companies should put the interests of the people whom data is about ahead of their own.") ... imo, the comment, especially the pew page, is well worth a gander: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/32852 @DKC follows up on IRS id.me usage: IRS backpedals out of that idea!
20210909 initial summary (i'm trying to summarize what everyone here is saying, trying to be mostly not wrong as opposed to completely right, but open to feedback... will update this comment --at the bottom of this comment-- twice a month or so accordingly)
some questions feature metrics that are not straightforward to intuit (e.g. the Bipartisan index from https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022); but as a percentage metric, this one couldn't be much simpler: minimum 0, maximum 100 and a straight linear function between them that corresponds directly to the proportion of interest in the subpopulation sampled. Most people have an intuition for this, I think, and if you don't, feel free to message me.
the main caveat with the metric space is that the question is scored not at purely periodic intervals but whenever the survey results are published (which can vary based on Pew's practices), so the time axis may be misleadingly regular...
of note (@MullenAustin, @AABoyles), the base rate in the graph is 1 data point long... from which deducing a trend is difficult, so we're forced to seek only related base rates, e.g. @DKC cites a Startpage survey from Feb 2021 indicating ~75% are concerned about online privacy but don't take much action to mitigate risks to it, and @cafebedouin cites a Gallup poll that ~half of respondents from 2000 were concerned about digital privacy whereas Pew data from the years after the Snowden revelation in 2013 indicates various sizable majorities concerned with various metrics of data collection by federal government surveillance, i.e. some increase in similar metrics.
so far, I think I'm reading a common theme of "already salient, so something big would have to be happen for the needle to move here", i.e. neutral-ish
also noticed (aside from the general sentiment that privacy and govt surveillance will become a bigger deal as time goes on) a pro-increase argument that essentially AI and cybersecurity will make this a bigger deal in the nearer future, making it especially prone to fear-mongering by big tech and thus firmly back in the minds of all those in the market for big tech products, but especially so if the government (e.g. DoD) becomes cozier with silicon valley as many here expect.
i.e. expect increases (although not by much)
@logarithmic (and @Estimatewell) makes a succinct counter-narrative that expects decreases: there's more room to go lower, and govt's surveilling behavior becomes more normal as time passes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20210919 update:
recent talk of privacy in the news, e.g. @DKC's articles, and in legislation, e.g. [...was waiting on citations, but didn't see any until subsequent update]
@TR301 makes a case for reduction using a tangential base rate data point: concern in 2014 over "the government’s monitoring of phone calls and internet communications" was 80% versus this survey's 64% with respect to government "collection of data"
@jowa makes case for a maximum percentage by virtue of some percent of people caring very little regardless of the news (about how much of their data is being collected).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20211002 update:
@velus posits a narrative arc to match their prediction arc, namely that the government will push laws to regulate more and more corporate use of data and thus will eventually be pressured to follow its own privacy rules, i.e. increasing concern of the public in the short term decreases over the following years
@cab391 provides a counterpoint that since the focus will be on corporations, there will be less concern about government use, although the prediction (decreasing over the longer term) remains the same
@ag2053 's takeaway is that once COVID has passed, there will be a renewed scrutiny on government use of data, especially given a lack of public engagement over privacy legislation, citing a brookings publication discussing the framework for privacy legislation.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20211021 update:
@DKC may add a wrinkle of party politics to consider: despite everyone's recent focus on facebook, mitch mcconnell and the right have a new problem with biden's build back better plan inviting the irs to screen for all transactions over 600$ (as opposed to the current 10k)... although even democrat senators and local leaders are not all on board...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20211115 update:
@DKC again with some hard-hitting statistics from https://www.chapman.edu/wilkinson/research-centers/babbie-center/_files/Babbie%20center%20fear2021/blogpost-americas-top-fears-2020_-21-final.pdf , namely that fear of govt corruption is the highest (by a VERY healthy margin) on a ranked list of americans' 10 biggest fears and recently increased its score on that list.
notably, the narratives i'm seeing most of in the forecast blurbs (whether one side or the other) are well-summed up in these two comments by
@TomGuesses https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/26434
and
@archsk8r https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/26296
, essentially that this could go either way depending on media/perception.
From a different standpoint,
@hannahlaibinis https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/26765
and
@goodbunny https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/27035
seem to view it as a public/private dichotomy; the former believes govt will have to step in for the needle to move and the latter believes private efforts are unlikely to bring more than simple awareness, i.e. not concern.
@ag2053 https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/27056 seems to take recent facebook ads and microsoft privacy practices as indicative of mounting pressure on private companies.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20211210 update:
@shaun-ee points out demographics might clue us into where this is headed (and gives uncited datapoints that the better educated and minorities seem to trust less, i.e. if trust in authority deteriorates this metric will go up, and that age could go either way, more concerned but also ok with more use-cases)
@nelsonliu shares a nytimes article about corporate pushback against invasive govt spy tools (and sees concerns continuing to emerge) and another on govt's themselves becoming concerned enough that the UK fined an AI company recently over breaching data protection laws
@danielvizcarra in contrast notes the brazilian govt proliferating fake news and thus posits americans becoming more concerned if it can happen on such a large scale elsewhere
@ag2053 also reframes the question somewhat as to what extent governments will be willing to forego the allure of this new age of AI-ML data on its citizens versus enforcing reasonable privacy policies for a new age of AI-ML data, citing a brookings study that details relevant legal frameworks; they also cite a "thedrum.com" article that holds ~90% of both democrats and republicans take privacy legislation to be very or somewhat important
@bturkay1 adds the narrative that because sino-american relations are just as bad under biden as trump, then to the extent america feels it must match china's internet security, the threat of a more authoritarian leadership could boost this metric
@hannahlaibinis adds to the "this will become a bigger deal around elections" narrative that literally the act of giving out any of one's personal information in order to register to and then vote might remind us all that the government will be using our sensitive info very deliberately.
@raan_mend cites a compelling statistic from a bitdefender advertorial (the source for which is later cited by @ag2053 ): 74% of internet users feel they have no control over the personal information collected on them and more are concerned than three years ago (esp those aged >55)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20220103 update:
not much in the way of new narratives or facts
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20220121 in the news:
@DKC posts story of southern california law enforcement using mass license plate surveillance inappropriately/illegally, and another about a senate bill proposed to screen outbound investments, e.g. impacting trade flows with china, under the rubric of anticipating and mitigating supply chain vulnerabilities, for which getting renewed attention might raise the political temperature around how our government should get/use data
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20220210 news:
@DKC posts a few more articles: one on the Biden admin's reticence to finally spin up the cybersecurity expert board to figure out ransomware attacks and digital espionage, and a couple on the IRS using facial recognition software and republican backlash
other than those, the more recent narratives involve younger and older generations becoming even more familiar with online life (and thus privacy concerns OR privacy nonchalance) and govt intrusion becoming a political hot-button
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20220309
@sepeskoe starts a narrative of "too many other things to worry about"
@trishbytes cites https://www.securitymagazine.com/articles/94560-of-americans-very-concerned-about-online-privacy-but-most-dont-take-any-significant-action supporting a rationale for privacy inaction, at least in the short-term
@NickS cites multiple narratives both up/down(the latter depending on youth) and cites meta's recent GDPR issues, a pew research govt trust poll over the last ~60 yrs almost all trending lower (broken down by various demographics), and a brookings institute policy "study" that took way longer to read than i wanted to spend (tldr: "a simple golden rule for privacy: that companies should put the interests of the people whom data is about ahead of their own.") ... imo, the comment, especially the pew page, is well worth a gander: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/32852
@DKC follows up on IRS id.me usage: IRS backpedals out of that idea!
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