Summary of forecast activity, covering question launch on 2021-08-24 to 2021-09-04
Tech is poised for continued growth. Emerging technologies, such as the Internet of things, machine learning, software as a service, leveraging of big data and blockchain technologies, will continue to drive increases in revenue. The Internet will continue to increase its penetration among the world's population and see increased use by those already connected. The pandemic will also serve as a catalyst for increased technology use, the most prominent example is the migration to work from home arrangements in response to the pandemic.
In the short term, the next 3 years, this picture may be complicated by societal and industry factors, such as the problems precipitated by more virulent variants of COVID-19, the maturing of some elements of their business, e.g., advertising revenue, and production constraints on semiconductor manufacturing and the long timeline to build up new semiconductor fabrication capacity.
Baseline estimate is ~62% increase in revenues for the Big 5 technology companies for the three year period from 2021 to 2024. The 10-90% chance that there will be a decrease of 17% when complicating factors undercut growth or as much as a three-fold increase in revenues, in the best case scenario where there is faster than expect GDP growth, semiconductor chips manufacturing come online faster than anticipated and COVID-19 vaccination rates worldwide accelerate.
this seems like a pretty coherent narrative; i'm surprised because most of the questions i forecast have such (what i see as) a diversity of narratives in the activity section... was everyone in general agreement here so early on? or are you just that good at incorporating everyone's considerations?? i'm impressed if so!
Summary of forecast activity, covering question launch on 2021-08-24 to 2021-09-04
Tech is poised for continued growth. Emerging technologies, such as the Internet of things, machine learning, software as a service, leveraging of big data and blockchain technologies, will continue to drive increases in revenue. The Internet will continue to increase its penetration among the world's population and see increased use by those already connected. The pandemic will also serve as a catalyst for increased technology use, the most prominent example is the migration to work from home arrangements in response to the pandemic.
In the short term, the next 3 years, this picture may be complicated by societal and industry factors, such as the problems precipitated by more virulent variants of COVID-19, the maturing of some elements of their business, e.g., advertising revenue, and production constraints on semiconductor manufacturing and the long timeline to build up new semiconductor fabrication capacity.
Baseline estimate is ~62% increase in revenues for the Big 5 technology companies for the three year period from 2021 to 2024. The 10-90% chance that there will be a decrease of 17% when complicating factors undercut growth or as much as a three-fold increase in revenues, in the best case scenario where there is faster than expect GDP growth, semiconductor chips manufacturing come online faster than anticipated and COVID-19 vaccination rates worldwide accelerate.
this seems like a pretty coherent narrative; i'm surprised because most of the questions i forecast have such (what i see as) a diversity of narratives in the activity section... was everyone in general agreement here so early on? or are you just that good at incorporating everyone's considerations?? i'm impressed if so!