I'm generally expecting things to spike in 2021 H2 with a lot of reporting about Afghanistan, to have a brief dip as people temporarily forget about it for more exciting things, and then for the global situation to progressively deteriorate further. My guess is that Afghanistan will have a particularly long-lived afterlife in the US public consciousness and there'll be something dumb that comes up like e.g., a terrorist attack that gets talked about non-stop for months. That plus the usual US-China stuff. The late Biden presidency is I think going to be particularly unpleasant for great power competition - probably will wind up clashing with Russia and China a lot while gearing up for the 2024 election.
I'm generally expecting things to spike in 2021 H2 with a lot of reporting about Afghanistan, to have a brief dip as people temporarily forget about it for more exciting things, and then for the global situation to progressively deteriorate further. My guess is that Afghanistan will have a particularly long-lived afterlife in the US public consciousness and there'll be something dumb that comes up like e.g., a terrorist attack that gets talked about non-stop for months. That plus the usual US-China stuff. The late Biden presidency is I think going to be particularly unpleasant for great power competition - probably will wind up clashing with Russia and China a lot while gearing up for the 2024 election.