With the current situation in Afghanistan I do expect the GPR index to tick up at least temporarily. Not sure if the uptick will be sustained for the rest of the period though. My general pessimistic intuition of "things are likely to get worse more than they are going to get better" makes me predict a slow growth back up to 2019 levels, but I'm keeping my error bars fairly wide to account for possible drastic changes (though I don't expect the index to ever fall below 2012 levels).
With the current situation in Afghanistan I do expect the GPR index to tick up at least temporarily. Not sure if the uptick will be sustained for the rest of the period though. My general pessimistic intuition of "things are likely to get worse more than they are going to get better" makes me predict a slow growth back up to 2019 levels, but I'm keeping my error bars fairly wide to account for possible drastic changes (though I don't expect the index to ever fall below 2012 levels).