CSET released a new report today exploring how state-of-the-art probabilistic forecasting tools can be used to advance expert debates on big policy questions. The report by Michael Page, CSET Research Fellow, is a case study on Foretell's issue campaign, which breaks down—”What is the future of the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship?”—into measurable components, and then leverages the wisdom of our crowd to reduce uncertainty and arbitrate disagreement among a group of experts. See the full report.
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Just Released CSET Paper: Wisdom of the Crowd as Arbiter of Expert Disagreement
Jan 01, 2022 10:06PM UTC