Pro Forecasters were selected because they did well in Season 01 (we looked at individuals who scored highly in at least 10 scored questions) and participated extensively. In an effort to engage the broader forecasting community, we also left a few spots open to individuals who could demonstrate they were highly ranked on other crowd forecasting platforms, such as Metaculus and GJOpen.
You’ll start to see Pro Forecasters on Foretell as they’ll have a special badge marking them as such. Pros dedicate at least 10 hours per month to forecasting, so you’ll want to check out how they’re approaching a question and what they’re considering as part of their forecast. You may disagree or discover some vulnerabilities in their assessment, which would make for valuable discourse.
We expect to have turnover among the Pros as people’s time commitments change, and we’ll be looking to the existing forecasting community to fill the ranks. To be considered, you must participate regularly, and on most scored questions, have outperformed the median crowd accuracy (this means that your relative accuracy score for scored questions is a negative number.) If you want to improve your accuracy, be sure to participate in our monthly live forecasting meetup events to gain insight on specific topics we’re asking about - and if you haven’t already - review this brief presentation on Forecasting Essentials.
We’ll provide more updates throughout the Pro Forecaster Program and look forward to the valuable input that, together, this community continues to generate.
To stay updated on what we’re doing, follow us on Twitter @CSETForetell.