« CSET Foretell Blog

Introducing Foretell Season 02

Apr 01, 2021 12:17AM UTC

Cultivate Labs
Foretell Season 02 is officially underway beginning April 1! To mark the new season, you will see a few changes:

Your Stats
With the start of the new forecasting season, the overall leaderboard will display scores for questions resolved in Season 02, which will officially run from April 1 to December 31. If you took a few heavy hits to your accuracy score in the past, you can make a drive for the top of the leaderboard this new season. You can of course always return to the Season 01 leaderboard, and an all-time leaderboard, encompassing both seasons, will also be available. 

In addition to leaderboard changes, you'll also notice other updates related to the new season. In your personal dashboard, the 'Performance' tile in the top left will reset and begin showing your performance in Season 02 (with your Season 01 performance still accessible).

When you hover over someone's username, you will begin seeing their Season 02 accuracy rank (as soon as the first question in Season 02 is judged).

New Interactive Probability Distribution Interface

One of the updates for this season includes an entirely new way to input your probabilistic forecast on certain types of questions. For questions that ask for probabilities for specific values (e.g., timeframes or numerical ranges), we've heard from several forecasters that it would help to see visually how they're distributing their probability across each range. We've now built an interactive probability distribution graph to do just that:

Simply click on any point representing a range, and drag it to the probability you'd like to assign. To minimise frustration, we've also built some handy tools to either equally distribute your probability, or "smooth" so your inputs sum to 100%. 

If you'd like to stick to the old slider-bar or text input interface, you can do so by toggling the buttons above the graph. 

Stale Forecasts

You’ve likely noticed new notifications that now tell you when your forecasts become ‘stale.’ If you have forecasts that are older than 30 days, you’ll receive notifications on the site as well as a summary email to remind you to either confirm that your forecast has not changed, or update it. You’re able to do both directly from the notification window.

We are delighted to be kicking off our new season, and there will be more features coming soon. If you have any feedback on Foretell or our latest feature updates, email us at csetforetell@georgetown.edu. 
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username